RBA with a hawkish hold

3 months ago 2

Sentiment sharply lower

Amidst all the usual central bank excitement, I must admit that I missed most of it as I'm on European timezone and have been mostly following the Paris Olympics rather than interest rate announcements!

Anyway, ANZ-Indeed reported that job advertisements fell for a 6th month on the bounce, to be -29 per cent lower than their November 2022 highs, with this series following a similar downwards trend to other measures of job advertisements.

This evidently points to a cooling labour market ahead for Australia.

In markets news, copper prices have dropped to below $4 per pound, which tends to a bearish indicator for the global economy and demand (h/t @Alonzo_CTHG).

Crude oil prices, meanwhile, have also slumped to a 7-month low, partly reflecting recession fears.

RBA on hold

Going into today's central bank announcement, then, there was plenty of discussion about whether the Reserve Bank of Australia would deliver any change of rhetoric or language, especially given that quarterly inflation this quarter is expected to be much more muted.

Energy subsidies are due to kick in this quarter, which will quickly hack headline inflation lower, it not the underlying trend.

Market pricing for interest rates had also shifted dramatically from a week ago.

In the event, though, the announcement and media conference remained understandably relatively hawkish, since the last thing policymakers want is for sentiment to kick up just as inflation as the annual rate of inflation moves close to the target range.

There's more than enough other RBA commentary on the interwebs to keep you entertained these days, but I'll just note here for those interested in property markets news, the following passage from the SoMP (as highlighted by Michael Pascoe on social media):

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

The Reserve Bank of Autsralia now expects dwelling investment and new housing construction to decline further this year, and increase by only 1 per cent next year, meaning that the shortage of housing is unlikely to be tackled over the next couple of years.

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