Unemployment rate falls to 3.93pc

It did seem as though November would see a strong month for hiring, and so it proved, with employment rising by +36,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis. 

The 3-month average employment gain held firm at +35,900, with a higher than normal number of people moving from unemployed to start work over the month. 

Total employment increased to a new high of 14,535,000.

The participation rate fell a bit to 67 per cent, and the unemployed rate dropped back to 3.93 per cent, well below the median market expectation for an increase to 4.2 per cent. 

While this could prove to be a noisy monthly result, it's still a very low number that gives the Reserve Bank of Australia plenty of optionality. 

The underemployment rate fell to 6.1 per cent, some 0.6ppts below where it was a year ago, which has been a real surprise in 2024. 

Although hours worked fell in the month, it was still a strong set of numbers, defying the alarming slowdown in the private sector of the economy.

If the unemployment rate can hold at these levels, given that the inflation rate is decelerating, it may prove to be the case that the NAIRU is lower than the previously assumed 4½ per cent.