Unemployment rate trends steadily higher

4 months ago 2

Jobs power on

Almost every other jobs market indicator points to falling job ads, a surge in the number of applicants per position, and easing wages...but the official ABS figures continue to hold up well.

Employment increased by a seasonally adjusted +50,200 in June, to a fresh high of 14.4 million.

The increase was driven by full-time jobs this month, although these figures do bounce around a fair bit and, zooming out, 70 per cent of employment gains over the past year have actually been part-time in nature.

The number of unemployed persons increased by a seasonally adjusted +10,000 taking the unemployment rate modestly higher to 4.1 per cent.

The trend for the unemployment rate has been steadily higher over the past two years from 3½ per cent, but despite some worrying signs, the wheels certainly haven't fallen off yet.

Indeed, with more people leaving the country than entering in this part of the year, the labour marker remains relatively tight for the time being, with measures of underemployment and underutilisation tightening a touch.

The 3-month average employment increase at +42,000 has just been enough to keep the unemployment rate down at just 4.1 per cent.

Overall, the labour market continues to hold up well, powered on by government and non-market roles in particular.

All eyes turn to the June inflation figures due out at the end of the month - quarterly inflation figures of around 1 per cent or lower probably keep interest rates on hold for the remainder of the year, but anything higher than that could trigger a hike.

James Foster ran through the employment figures in more detail here.

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